Super Bowl 51: The Madden NFL Prediction Record

Super Bowl 51 (or is it Super Bowl LI?) is upon us, which means another year of media hype, hilarious commercials, halftime show mishaps, and of course the annual Madden NFL Prediction. Oh, and there is a football game, too. The annual tradition of EA Sports picking a Super Bowl winner began back in 2004, to coincide with Super Bowl XXXVIII. So far, they have gone 9 out of 13, a record that any sports fan would be proud of. They even picked the exact score for last year’s game.

This year, the Madden NFL Prediction has the New England Patriots beating the Atlanta Falcons 27-24 in the big game. Take a look at EA’s simulation of it in this snazzy video package.

Currently, the Vegas oddsmakers are picking Patriots, which lines up nicely with the Madden pick. Here’s a quick recap of previous Super Bowl results to see how the Madden NFL prediction stacks up against the oddsmakers in Vegas and the actual score. Is Madden more accurate than the folks in Vegas, whose job it is to predict big games? Let’s use a completely non-scientific analysis to take a look.

Super Bowl XXXVIII

New England Patriots vs. Carolina Panthers

Super-Bowl-XXXVIII-Logo
  • Madden NFL Prediction Winner & Score: Patriots 23-20
  • Vegas Oddsmaker Winner & Score: Patriots 22-15
  • Actual Winner & Score: Patriots 32-29

Result: Madden had the edge here, matching the point differential (spread) of the actual game.

Super Bowl XXXIX

New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Super-Bowl-XXXIX
  • Madden NFL Prediction Winner & Score: Patriots 47-31
  • Vegas Oddsmaker Winner & Score: Patriots 27-20
  • Actual Winner & Score: Patriots 24-21

Result: Vegas was the better predictor of both the spread and the overall score combined score (over/under).

Super Bowl XL

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks

Super-Bowl-XL
  • Madden NFL Prediction Winner & Score: Steelers 24-19
  • Vegas Oddsmaker Winner & Score: Steelers 26-22
  • Actual Winner & Score: Steelers 21-10

Result: Madden is closer on picking the spread, but both had the over/under higher than the actual game.

Super Bowl XLI

Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears

Super-Bowl-XLI
  • Madden NFL Prediction Winner & Score: Colts 38-27
  • Vegas Oddsmaker Winner & Score: Colts 27-20
  • Actual Winner & Score: Colts 29-17

Result: Tie — Madden was more accurate with the spread, but Vegas had the more accurate over/under.

Super Bowl XLII

New England Patriots vs. New York Giants

Super-Bowl-XLII
  • Madden NFL Prediction Winner & Score: Patriots 38-30
  • Vegas Oddsmaker Winner & Score: Patriots 34-22
  • Actual Winner & Score: Giants 17-14

Result: Tie — Neither did a great job of predicting the spread or the over/under.

Super Bowl XLIII

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals

Super-Bowl-XLIII
  • Madden NFL Prediction Winner & Score: Steelers 28-24
  • Vegas Oddsmaker Winner & Score: Steelers 27-20
  • Actual Winner & Score: Steelers 27-23

Result: Madden was the more accurate predictor of both the spread and over/under.

Super Bowl XLIV

New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts

  • Madden NFL Prediction Winner & Score: Saints 35-31
  • Vegas Oddsmaker Winner & Score: Colts 31-26
  • Actual Winner & Score: Saints 31-17

Result: Madden gets it by picking the underdog for the win.

Super Bowl XLV

Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Madden NFL Prediction Winner & Score: Steelers 24-20
  • Vegas Oddsmaker Winner & Score: Packers 24-21
  • Actual Winner & Score: Packers 31-25

Result: Vegas gets it by picking the favorite Packers for the win.

Super Bowl XLVI

New York Giants vs. New England Patriots

  • Madden NFL Prediction Winner & Score: Giants 27-24
  • Vegas Oddsmaker Winner & Score: Patriots 27-25
  • Actual Winner & Score: Giants 21-17

Result: Madden accurately predicted the Giants win.

Super Bowl XLVII

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers

  • Madden NFL Prediction Winner & Score: Ravens 27-24
  • Vegas Oddsmaker Winner & Score: 49ers 26-22
  • Actual Winner & Score: Ravens 34-31

Result: Madden accurately picked the Ravens to win over the 49ers.

Super Bowl XLVIII

Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos

  • Madden NFL Prediction Winner & Score: Broncos 31-28
  • Vegas Oddsmaker Winner & Score: Broncos 25-23
  • Actual Winner & Score: Seahawks 43-8

Result: Tie – Neither could foresee how badly the Broncos were going to match up against the Seahawks.

Super Bowl XLIX

New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks

  • Madden NFL Prediction Winner & Score: Patriots 28-24
  • Vegas Oddsmaker Winner & Score: Pick ’em 24-23
  • Actual Winner & Score: Patriots 28-24

Result: Madden nailed it by picking the winner and the exact score of the game.

Super Bowl L

Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos

  • Madden NFL Prediction Winner & Score: Panthers 24-20
  • Vegas Oddsmaker Winner & Score: Panthers 25-20
  • Actual Winner & Score: Broncos 24-10

Result: Madden and Vegas missed this one by a lot, with Broncos shocking everyone.

Conclusion

Counting wins and ties as one point each, Madden takes it 10-6, confirming its standing as the most accurate simulation of professional football around.

Thanks go to VegasInsider.com for the Vegas oddsmaker predictions. 



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