Audiences made a clear choice this weekend: blue makeup is preferable to pasty white makeup. X-Men: Apocalypse trounced Alice Through the Looking Glass by nearly $40 million, making the Disney sequel a significant loss for the House of Mouse. Alice had little hope to break out for a number of reasons, but chief among those was its distance from the original; six years is a long time between series installments and audience interest obviously waned during that interim. The original also had the benefit of releasing hot on the heels of Avatar, giving its 3D/IMAX presentation a big bump. That spectacle doesn’t quite hold the same sway as it once did.
X-Men: Apocalypse will end up doing good business but is still something of a disappointment for Fox. The film’s middling critical reception (it’s the second worst reviewed X-Men film on Rotten Tomatoes) is a bummer after the widely beloved X-Men: Days of Future Past. Where will the franchise go from here? We may have some thoughts about that.
A few tidbits from the numbers:
- The Jungle Book has passed Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice at the domestic box office. Warner Bros. cannot be happy with that news. Geoff Johns, please save the DC universe on film. You’re already on your way towards fixing the comic universe.
- Warcraft opened in twenty territories this weekend and has already pocketed $31.6 million. The Angry Birds Movie has made almost $224 million globally. 2016 is definitely going to go down as the Year of the Video Game Movie.
The Numbers Game
Each week, I will guess how much wide-release films will be making on their opening weekend. My estimates come from my heart and my gut. You’d think I’d use my brain but that makes far too much sense. Fandom editor Nick Nunziata will also be providing his guesses because two stabs in the dark are better than one.
Last Week:
X-Men: Apocalypse
My Guess: $91,000,000 (for the four-day weekend)
Nick’s Guess: $76,000,000
Actual: $65,000,000 ($78M-$80 for the four-day weekend)
Result: Predicting box office results may not be our mutant power.
Alice Through the Looking Glass
My Guess: $62,000,000 (for the four-day weekend)
Nick’s Guess: $48,000,000
Actual: $28,112,000 (~$35M for the four-day weekend)
Result: No Chesire Cat grins from Nick, myself, or audiences on this one.
This week:
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows
The Turtles are pop culture mainstays so it’s wise not to bet against them. Though the last film was met mostly with disdain from fans, general audiences made it an undeniable hit. The sequel is hoping to lure fans back with the inclusion of Casey Jones, Bebop, Rocksteady, and Krang as well as an overall brighter, cartoonier tone that’s evidenced from the film’s subtitle. Could this be a bit of course correction for this iteration of the Turtles?
My guess: $54,000,000
Nick’s guess: $28,000,000
Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping
The new comedy from The Lonely Island got some decent exposure thanks to their musical appearance on Saturday Night Live, but R-rated comedies are often hard to predict. Will audiences flock to a faux documentary that’s clearly taking a swing at Justin Bieber? The trailers have sold the movie’s humor quite well and the appeal of celebrity cameos will probably help fuel curiosity about the movie. This is The Lonely Island’s first wide-release film since their 2007 flop Hot Rod, so it’d be nice to see a win for these guys.
My guess: $21,000,000
Nick’s guess: $13,000,000
Me Before You
Romantic films based on books usually have a baked in audience opening weekend, but even I have to admit complete ignorance when it comes to the source material of Me Before You. Even though it’s got the Mother of Dragons headlining, the playing field seems a little too crowded for a film like this. Releasing this in the summer probably was an act of counter-programming, but going up against a big comedy will undoubtedly hurt Me Before You‘s chances.
My guess: $9,000,000
Nick’s guess: $8,500,000
See you next week!
Source: Box Office Mojo
