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Box Office: ‘Strange’ Still #1, ‘Arrival’ Arrives Strong

The box office got a nice bump due to the Veterans Day weekend. Disney/Marvel’s Doctor Strange easily held onto the top spot and DreamWorks Animation’s Trolls stayed in second place. What was particularly uplifting was the returns for Arrival. The unique and low-key sci-fi film debuted in third place with a strong $24 million. Reviews have been great (check out Nick’s here) and hopefully this will hang on for another week or so. It’s not one to miss.

Almost Christmas was a hard film to predict, but it did well with audiences. It could hold on for the coming weeks. The big disappointment of the weekend was Shut In. It just hasn’t been a great year for PG-13 horror and Shut In continued that trend. It might gain some reappraisal once it hits video, but it’s probably already leaving theaters.

The Numbers Game

Each week, I will guess how much wide-release films will be making on their opening weekend. My estimates come from my heart and my gut. You’d think I’d use my brain, but that makes far too much sense. Fandom editor Nick Nunziata usually joins me, but he’s taking a break this week.

Last Week:

Arrival
My Guess: $25,000,000
Nick’s Guess: $35,000,000
Actual: $24,000,000
Result: A solid debut, though Nick expected a lot more. The movie is certainly worth it.

Almost Christmas
My Guess: $19,000,000
Nick’s Guess: $21,000,000
Actual: $15,564,000
Result: Not a terrible opening. This one will really sink or swim in the coming weeks.

Shut In
My Guess: $9,000,000
Nick’s Guess: $7,500,000
Actual: $3,700,000
Result: Ouch. If anything can be learned from this, it’s that PG-13 horror just isn’t what audiences want.

This week:

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

box office fantastic beasts feature hero

A new Harry Potter movie arrives, but is it the kind of Harry Potter movie audiences are wanting to see? Fans are giddy with excitement — and rightfully so — but more casual viewers don’t seem quite as jazzed. Early reviews are very positive, and the marketing machine will be out in full force this weekend. However, having to battle against another magic-themed movie could hurt Fantastic Beasts opening weekend at the box office. This is going to be a big indicator of where audiences are at with this franchise.

My guess: $78,000,000

Bleed for This

box office bleed for this

Boxing movies are usually a guaranteed good time, and Bleed for This looks like a fine entry in the sub-genre. The performances look great, and the true story aspect is very enticing. It wouldn’t be surprising to see this become an Oscar contender. But the small number of screens it’s being released on, and the big holdover films it’s up against isn’t encouraging. It might act as some decent counterprogramming, but it may not fly onto enough peoples’ radars.

My guess: $8,000,000

The Edge of Seventeen

box office edge of seventeen

As far as teen angst dramedies go, The Edge of Seventeen looks like a standout. The humor is on point, and the perspective feels like it’s full of honesty. If this was based on a popular book, it might have a lot of devotees showing up on opening weekend. But, it’s getting less than 2,000 screens and is up against a lot of competition. This will probably be on some “Great Movies You Missed in 2016” list.

My guess: $6,000,000

See you next week, box office buddies!

Source: Box Office Mojo


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