The box office felt the Force once again. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story surpassed industry expectations and claimed a hearty victory over the weekend. It will have some serious competition in the coming weeks due to a plethora of wide releases, but the staying power of the franchise will likely help it out quite a bit.
Look, we all knew a Star Wars film was going to do just fine at the box office. The more interesting story is the other wide release of the weekend, Collateral Beauty. This schmaltzy holiday fare was critically panned and sunk at the box office. It now stands as the worst opening for a Will Smith film. That’s one heck of a record to hold. Thanks to misleading marketing, audiences turned on the movie on the first day of its release. It’s a lesson for people who cut trailers: don’t lie to your audience.
The Numbers Game
Each week, I will guess how much wide-release films will be making on their opening weekend. My estimates come from my heart and my gut. You’d think I’d use my brain, but that makes far too much sense. Fandom’s editor Nick Nunziata will also be providing his guesses because two stabs in the dark are better than one.
Last Week:
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
My Guess: $160,000,000
Nick’s Guess: $175,000,000
Actual: $155,000,000
Result: A fantastic first weekend for the film and a decent guess on our part.
Collateral Beauty
My Guess: $12,000,000
Nick’s Guess: $28,000,000
Actual: $7,000,000
Result: WOOF. What a flop to end the year on. Will Smith’s star just took a big hit.
This week:
Sing
Cute animal characters singing recognizable tunes seems like a license to print money at the box office. But does Sing‘s release date show a lack of confidence in the film? Early reviews have been mixed but mostly positive and the adorable factor is always strong with flicks like this. Kid fare often does well in the holidays, so expect this to claim the #2 spot this coming weekend.
My guess: $39,000,000
Nick’s guess: $50,000,000
Passengers
This film has taken years to get to the big screen and now that it’s here… eh? The buzz and fervor around the movie are very muted. Not to mention that opening a sci-fi drama next to a Star Wars film is bad timing. There’s been a blandness to the marketing that hasn’t really given people a strong enough reason to check this out. Passengers might end up being the flop of the weekend.
My guess: $22,000,000
Nick’s guess: $24,000,000
Assassin’s Creed
Hey, a video game movie! Those always do well, right? Assassin’s Creed is trying very hard to set itself apart from other video game movies but it’s unavoidable. Will the fanbase and general audience be enough to make this a secret success? It’s definitely going to lose some pull thanks to Rogue One snatching some viewers who are looking for fantasy action. But if the movie turns out to be good? This one could surprise.
My guess: $24,000,000
Nick’s guess: $17,000,000
Why Him?
It’s too bad we haven’t properly embraced Bryan Cranston after his time on Breaking Bad. He’s a great actor that deserves better than this kind of lowest common denominator comedy. Plus, people seem pretty burnt out on James Franco. The guy just doesn’t have any box office pull anymore. Why Him? could very well be a funny and fun time at the movies but the resources aren’t there for it to break out.
My guess: $10,000,000
Nick’s guess: $11,000,000
See you next week, box office buddies!
Source: Box Office Mojo
