Disney once again ruled the box office this holiday weekend. Moana captured the second best Thanksgiving opening of all time. The only one topping it was Frozen. That says a lot about the kind of staying power Moana will have in the coming weeks. With no real competition for two more weekends, Moana is going to clean house.
The other releases did moderately well to not so great. Allied came in behind holdovers Fantastic Beasts and Doctor Strange. Bad Santa 2 couldn’t quite surpass Almost Christmas, the other Christmas film currently running. The biggest loser is Rules Don’t Apply. The Warren Beatty film is the worst wide release opening of the year. Looks like its Oscar chances just crashed and burned.
Granted, all of these films got a boost from the extra two days in release thanks to the holiday. We still only calculate for the weekend so bare that in mind when reading our results.
The Numbers Game
Each week, I will guess how much wide-release films will be making on their opening weekend. My estimates come from my heart and my gut. You’d think I’d use my brain, but that makes far too much sense. Fandom’s editor Nick Nunziata will also be providing his guesses because two stabs in the dark are better than one.
Last Week:
Moana
My Guess: $68,000,000
Nick’s Guess: $74,000,000
Actual: $55,523,000
Result: Not shabby at all. We expected this to do Frozen numbers but it fell a tad shy. Still, excellent opening.
Allied
My Guess: $28,000,000
Nick’s Guess: $13,000,000
Actual: $13,000,000
Result: Right on the money! Great guess from Nick. I’m looking less professional now.
Rules Don’t Apply
My Guess: $8,000,000
Nick’s Guess: $1,500,000
Actual: $1,575,000
Result: Nick scores again! My enthusiasm for movies is obviously handicapping me.
Bad Santa 2
My Guess: $10,000,000
Nick’s Guess: $17,000,000
Actual: $6,106,658
Result: Not terrible but not encouraging. Don’t expect this to become a trilogy.
This week:
Incarnate
Film studios know to give the Thanksgiving releases a wide berth. They’re doing exactly that with Incarnate. This sci-fi/horror film is getting whisked into only 1,500 screens and is up against strong holdovers. The concept is intriguing and Aaron Eckhart really deserves to be back in the spotlight. Don’t think this is going to achieve that. Plus, it’s a PG-13 horror movie and those are always a hard sell.
My guess: $3,000,000
Nick’s guess: $2,750,000
See you next week, box office buddies!
Source: Box Office Mojo
