The box office was more enamored with Hawaiian adventures than holiday shenanigans. Moana claimed the top spot for the third week in a row. It’s safe to say that this has been a stellar hit for the House of Mouse. It must be nice to know that they’ll also be controlling the number one spot this weekend with Rogue One. It’s a good time to be a Mouseketeer.
Elsewhere at the cinema, Office Christmas Party sat comfortably in second place. It did better than industry expectations and might be able to have a decent hold in the coming weeks. The bummer of the weekend is Miss Sloane. Reviews have been very positive and this might find its audience when it comes to home video. However, it;s box office performance probably means it will be gone in a week or so.
The Numbers Game
Each week, I will guess how much wide-release films will be making on their opening weekend. My estimates come from my heart and my gut. You’d think I’d use my brain, but that makes far too much sense. Fandom’s editor Nick Nunziata will also be providing his guesses because two stabs in the dark are better than one.
Last Week:
Office Christmas Party
My Guess: $29,000,000
Nick’s Guess: $23,000,000
Actual: $17,500,000
Result: Less than we anticipated but still a decent showing.
Miss Sloane
My Guess: $4,000,000
Nick’s Guess: $2,750,000
Actual: $1,900,000
Result: Damn. This one deserved some more love.
This week:
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
How can you ever accurately assume how much a Star Wars flick is going to make at the box office opening weekend? These movies are cultural movements. Let’s try and science this out as best as we can. The Force Awakens had an opening weekend of roughly $248 million. Rogue One will never reach those heights. The specialness of The Force Awakens isn’t being felt with Rogue One. However, early buzz on the film is tremendously positive. If it clicks with audiences, repeat viewings over the weekend are a good possibility. Also, the fervor for a Star Wars film always ramps up the week of release.
Rogue One will easily claim the second highest December opening of all time, topping The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey by a wide margin. But how much of a dent will it put in the overall top opening weekends? It would have to crack about $159 million to dethrone The Dark Knight from the number ten spot. I’m going to bet it has the juice to do that. Disney is slightly conservative with their expectations for the film. This is the first in a new experiment for the Star Wars movies and they are hoping it pays off big time, but they don’t want to get too confident if it doesn’t smash records. I’ll go ahead and be confident for them.
My guess: $160,000,000
Nick’s guess: $175,000,000
Collateral Beauty
As always, you can depend on some counter-programming for all the curmudgeon adults who don’t wanna see no dadgum Space Fights picture. This looks like a reappropriation of A Christmas Carol with some maudlin feel-good magic slathered all over it. The cast is great and recognizable, but will this catch on with grownups? Will Smith’s star doesn’t shine quite as bright as it used to and the overt sentimentality of the trailers and commercials feels a bit cloying. The movie might actually be good but it’s going to fade away under the shadow of Rogue One. Remember when Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip released the same weekend as The Force Awakens? Yeah, me neither.
My guess: $12,000,000
Nick’s guess: $28,000,000
See you next week, box office buddies!
Source: Box Office Mojo
