The box office bid farewell to Hugh Jackman’s Wolverine with a stunning send-off. Logan (my review) broke through even the loftiest projections and claimed the number one spot with an $85 million debut. For a hard-R film, that’s pretty damn impressive. With audiences reacting so positively to this movie, expect it to stick around next weekend in a big way. This one isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
Meanwhile, the other newcomers had to contend with an incredible holdover performance from Get Out (my review). With only a 22% drop from last weekend, Get Out is proving to be a phenomenon. That’s encouraging for those of us who want smarter and stranger horror films in the multiplex.
The Shack performed admirably at third place, but don’t expect it to stick around for too long. These faith-driven movies usually flare out after one weekend. And Before I Fall? With an opening under $5 million, don’t count on it being in theaters for much longer. It might have one more weekend left before it falls (*sigh*) off the radar.
The Numbers Game
Each week, I will guess how much wide-release films will be making on their opening weekend. My estimates come from my heart and my gut. You’d think I’d use my brain, but that makes far too much sense.
Last Week:
Logan
My Guess: $70,000,000
Actual: $85,300,000
Result: WOW. This went way beyond pretty much anybody’s expectations. A great way to send the character off.
Before I Fall
My Guess: $5,000,000
Actual: $4,948,538
Result: Hey, I was almost right on the money! But what a weak showing for this flick.
The Shack
My Guess: $9,000,000
Actual: $16,100,000
Result: Guess I underestimated the faith-based crowd.
This week:
Kong: Skull Island
As the only wide release for next week, Kong: Skull Island has a lot going for it. However, the immense success of Logan and the incredible holdover business of Get Out are going to chip away at this film’s intended audience. The film is a blast (read Chris Tilly’s review) and does a great job of setting up the eventual MonsterVerse, but are people going to be hyped about a new King Kong movie? Will word-of-mouth be good enough for us to see a significant Saturday bump? I want this to do well but I’m worried it’s just going to be bad timing. I hope I’m wrong.
My guess: $35,000,000
See you next week, box office buddies!
Source: Box Office Mojo
