The box office was pretty magical this weekend. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them easily claimed the #1 spot while Doctor Strange and Trolls battled it out for second place. The Sorcerer Supreme won by a smidge.
In fact, with the exception of Fantastic Beasts, the top six spots were all claimed by holdovers. Newcomers The Edge of Seventeen and Bleed for This couldn’t make enough noise to break out. However, all three new releases earned great CinemaScores, showing that they might have some staying power in the next two weeks.
But, this isn’t all good news. Fantastic Beasts had a solid but not spectacular opening. It was the lowest opening for any of the Wizarding World films and the demographics seem to be skewing to an older audience. Franchises like this live on younger viewers. Will that be a problem for this new series going forward? We’ll see since the second-weekend drop-off says a lot about a film’s staying power.
The Numbers Game
Each week, I will guess how much wide-release films will be making on their opening weekend. My estimates come from my heart and my gut. You’d think I’d use my brain, but that makes far too much sense. Fandom’s editor Nick Nunziata will also be providing his guesses because two stabs in the dark are better than one.
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
My Guess: $78,000,000
Nick’s Guess: $105,000,000
Result: Not a bad start for this, but it was certainly hoping to make a bigger splash. Still, close enough to count as a win for me.
This week (note: releases open on Wednesday for the holiday. We are still guessing Friday-Saturday grosses):
Disney has been decimating box office records in 2016. Moana will probably continue that trend. Zootopia opened earlier this year and was a runaway success. Will Moana be as gargantuan? It’s got fantastic talent behind it but it’s also going up against a lot of strong holdovers. Could Trolls sap a little of Moana‘s mojo? Probably not enough to make a huge dent. This one will do just fine.
My guess: $68,000,000
Nick’s guess: $74,000,000
This bit of adult counter-programming might get a boost from Brad Pitt’s recent tabloid dramas. But, is it going to be able to stand up against everything else in the marketplace? The thriller/mystery angle is exciting and probably will help woo more people to Allied rather than the other adult-targeted offering this week (see below). But this is hitting the Oscar wave a little too early.
My guess: $28,000,000
Nick’s guess: $13,000,000
Rules Don’t Apply
This feels like a movie from another era and that’s not because it’s a period piece. This is a clear piece of Oscar bait that might click with a much older audience but that’s all. Warren Beatty is trying for a comeback at 79 years old. It’s not impossible and the guy is inarguably a classic movie star, but this feels a little too canned. It’ll probably get some Oscar buzz but not enough to propel folks to the theater this weekend.
My guess: $8,000,000
Nick’s guess: $1,500,000
Bad Santa 2
The sequel to the raunchy cult classic finally makes its way to the big screen. There is a thirteen-year gap between the two films. That distance usually hurts sequels. Plus, the surprise of the first film’s vulgarity can’t be recaptured. Still, people love a taboo comedy every now and then. This one could surprise.
My guess: $10,000,000
Nick’s guess: $17,000,000
See you next week, box office buddies!
Source: Box Office Mojo