The box office had a surprise in store this past weekend. The Boss Baby blew away the competition in a way no one saw coming. Most people expected Beauty and the Beast to threepeat at the number one spot, but it was edged out by a tiny baby with plenty of lowbrow humor to spare. You never know how audiences are going to respond to these kinds of things.
On that note, the biggest disappointment of the weekend was Ghost in the Shell (Kim’s review). It couldn’t even break $20 million and that is quite a weak performance. There are a number of factors to consider here: poor marketing, a bad controversy, and the fact that it’s a weird property to try and sell people on. Maybe it will find an audience later in its life like a lot of movies. We’ll have to see what this film’s legacy will be.
The Numbers Game
Each week, I will guess how much wide-release films will be making on their opening weekend. My estimates come from my heart and my gut. You’d think I’d use my brain, but that makes far too much sense.
Ghost in the Shell
My Guess: $30,000,000
Result: Oh my gods. This is a huge underperformer. What a shame. The movie seems like some sci-fi worth seeing.
The Boss Baby
My Guess: $35,000,000
Result: Great Caesar’s ghost! This blew away expectations. Who would have thought it would topple Beauty and the Beast?
Smurfs: The Lost Village
Releasing another animated kiddie movie one week after something in the same vein is risky business. The Smurfs is a recognizable brand but how much clout do they have? This is the first time the feature film series has gone into full animated territory, so that could drive more people to the theater. But I’m wondering if Boss Baby and Beauty will siphon some of this film’s potential audience.
My guess: $26,000,000
Going in Style
This “old guys pull off a bank heist” film looks like a joy, but its target demographic rarely comes out in droves on opening weekend. If reviews are good, Going in Style could have a strong second weekend but it’s unlikely to break out during its first run. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if it eventually becomes a television staple.
My guess: $20,000,000
The Case for Christ
I’ve always been wavy on these faith-based movies but even I know this title. This could be a bigger breakout for a film of this matter but it’s still not getting a big release (only a little more than 1,000 screens). However, Easter is the following weekend. You could see this get a spike during that time.
My guess: $5,000,000
See you next week, box office buddies!
Source: Box Office Mojo